#political stability Turkey

[quillsword]

Is the World Going Crazy?

Footnote audio above Footnote section Nope, it’s just straightening out a few messes. Unfortunately, political messes are seldom straightened out quietly. So while there is a lot of stuff exploding at the moment, it’s a relatively minor readjustment. Major readjustments involve world wars. I vote we skip that this go around. At present, no one is doing anything that involves the US showing up…

[whencyclopedia]

Trdat the Architect

“Trdat the Architect” or Tiridates (c. 940s-c. 1020s?) was a Armenian architect who is noted for his role in the reconstruction of the Hagia Sophia's dome in Constantinople following an earthquake in the 10th century CE, as well as the Cathedral of Ani and the Church of Gagik in what is now present-day Turkey. Along with Momik (c.1270-1333 CE), Trdat is the most famous Armenian architect of the Middle Ages.

Very little if anything concrete is known about Trdat's earliest years aside from that he was Armenian with extensive talents in mathematics and architectural design. Trdat's life coincided with the medieval Armenian golden era as well as the so-called “Macedonian Renaissance” of the Byzantine Empire (867-1056 CE). After centuries of intermittent warfare and constant invasions, Armenians and Byzantines halted the tide of the Arab onslaught, stabilizing their borders and safeguarding their population centers. This was a time of political and economic stability in addition to cultural effervescence in both Armenia and Byzantium. Historians and archaeologists can trace Trdat's movements based on his construction and reconstruction projects around historical Armenia as well as the Byzantine Empire. Trdat lived and worked primarily in Shirak province, which in the 10th and 11th century CE included the city of Ani, the capital of Bagratid Armenia (885-1045 CE).

Work in Ani & Shirak

Trdat is sometimes credited as the architect responsible for the construction of several churches at the Sanahin Monastery, the Haghpat Monastery, and the Marmashen Monastery, which are all located in present-day Armenia. According to the Universal History, written by the Armenian historian Stepanos Asoghik in the 11th century CE, Trdat is mentioned by name as responsible for the construction of the Argina Cathedral, which had become the seat of the Armenian Catholicos in the late 9th century CE. Located just to the north of Ani and in a current state of partial collapse, Argina Cathedral was once an aisleless structure characterized by a dome on pendentives. This cathedral's linearity and longitudinal space divided by piers foreshadowed Trdat's subsequent work on Ani Cathedral.

Historians are able to trace Trdat's life primarily through his work in and around Ani, although it should be noted that Trdat was active in Armenia prior to and after his repair of the Hagia Sophia. Ani was a new, but grand city that stood at the crossroads of trade between the Byzantine Empire, the Abbasid Caliphate, the Kievan Rus, and the Persianate states of Central Asia. Founded in 961 CE, Ani grew quickly and at its height, it contained a population of perhaps 100,000 people. Because of the city's rapid growth, King Ashot III of Armenia (r. 953-977 CE) and his sons, King Smbat II (r. 977-989 CE) and King Gagik I (r. 989-1020 CE), ordered the construction of new walls, public spaces, caravanserai (roadside inns), and churches. Ani soon became known throughout the Near East and Mediterranean as the “city of a thousand and one churches."

In 989, Smbat II commanded Trdat to build a new cathedral in Ani and construction of this building ended around 1001-1006 CE under the supervision of Queen Katramide (c. 970-1010 CE), the wife of Gagik I and sister of King Bagrat III of Georgia (r. 1008–1014 CE). Historians contend that Trdat then worked on the Church of Gagik (occasionally referred to as Gagkasen). This church, dedicated to St. Gregory of Armenia, was built in imitation of Zvartnots Cathedral, having "brilliant splendor, lofty vaults, and a sanctuary surmounted by a heaven-like dome” ( Evans et al, 352). However, despite their similarities, Trdat elongates the church's arches and supports, and profiles large interior spaces at the Church of Gagik. Trdat here was perhaps influenced by the linear aesthetics of the Hagia Sophia and other Byzantine churches.

Continue reading...

[mariacallous]

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the only EU leader to openly back Donald Trump in his bid to reclaim the White House, was unsurprisingly among the first to congratulate the former president on Wednesday morning, even before the final results were in and rival Kamala Harris had conceded.

“The biggest comeback in US political history! Congratulations to President @realDonaldTrump on his enormous win. A much needed victory for the World!” Orban rejoiced on X (formerly Twitter).

Orban, who will be hosting European leaders in Budapest later this week, was swiftly joined by other illiberal leaders and fellow populists in Central and Southeast Europe, likewise unable to contain their glee at the return of Trump, who by midmorning Europe time had gained 266 electoral votes — just four shy from the 270 he needs to be elected the 47th US president.

Another close ally of Trump in Central Europe, Polish President Andrzej Duda, who met the former president in New York earlier this year, posted excitedly, complete with emojis: “Congratulations, Mr. President @realDonaldTrump! You made it happen! 👏👏👏🇵🇱🤝🇺🇸”.

In the Czech Republic, the former prime minister and Trump admirer Andrej Babis posted on X: “Sensational comeback @realDonaldTrump! He wasn’t stopped by an assassination attempt, nor by politically motivated lawsuits, nor by a systematic smear campaign in the media. American citizens have made it clear who they want as US President. I am confident that his victory will bring prosperity to the United States and peace to the world.”

More subdued comments came from Prime Minister Petr Fiala, who Babis is looking to oust in 2025, also on X: “Congratulations to Donald Trump on winning the presidential election. Our shared goal is to ensure that the relations between our countries remain at the highest level, despite changes in administration, and that we continue to develop them for the benefit of our citizens.”

Populist Slovak prime minister, Robert Fico, is currently on a state visit to China, though his ally, President Peter Pellegrini, offered his congratulations to Donald Trump on X. “I wish you and the American people all the success. Slovakia remains to be a strong and reliable Ally on NATO’s tested Eastern Flank living up to our shared commitments. I sincerely wish for a continuation of our good cooperation. Let’s make the transatlantic bond great again.”

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who visited the White House during Trump’s first term in office that ended in 2020, welcomed Trump’s win on X. “Congratulations to Donald Trump on his victory. Together we face the serious challenges ahead. Serbia is committed to cooperation with the USA on stability, prosperity and peace,” Vucic wrote.

Turkey’s strongman leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said he wanted to congratulate his “great friend” Trump on his victory.

“In this new period that will begin with the election of the American people, I hope that Turkey-US relations will strengthen, that regional and global crises and wars, especially the Palestinian issue and the Russia-Ukraine war, will come to an end; I believe that more efforts will be made for a more just world,” Erdogan wrote on X.

The first to hail Trump’s win from Bosnia and Herzegovina was, unsurprisingly, the president of the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska entity, Milorad Dodik. “One of [the] most important electoral wins in recent history of the USA but the World as well! Congratulations, Donald Trump, 47th President of the United States of America!” Dodik wrote on his official X profile.

Late last year Dodik said that a victory for Trump would mean a “better geopolitical situation for Republika Srpska”, claiming that he regretted not declaring his entity’s independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina during Trump’s 2016-2020 presidency.

North Macedonia’s conservative prime minister, Hristijan Mickoski, sent his “heartfelt congratulations” to Trump on Wednesday morning. “This victory is a confirmation of the deep faith of the American people in the principles of freedom and democracy,” Mickoski, whose conservative, right-wing government came to power earlier this year, wrote on Facebook.

Mickoski and his cabinet are not among European leaders who fear a second Trump term could wreak havoc with transatlantic and international relations. His ruling VMRO-DPMNE party nurtures close ties with one of the biggest Trump endorsers on the continent, Hungary’s Orban, and over the summer Mickoski’s series of meetings with close Trump associates made his preference even more obvious.

“We look forward to further deepening our strong partnership and cooperation,” Mickoski added.

Warm words from the Balkans

The president of Montenegro, Jakov Milatovic, congratulated Trump on his victory. “Montenegro and the USA are friends and steadfast partners, united by shared goals and values, focused on advancing democracy, security, stability, and freedom. As NATO allies, we look forward to working very closely with Your administration on strengthening our friendship and deepening cooperation,” Milatovic wrote on X.

Montenegro’s first congratulatory message came earlier from the president of the parliament and leader of the pro-Serbian NOVA party Andrija Mandic. “I am sure that together we will build bridges of cooperation and preserve peace and stability in the Western Balkans,” Mandic wrote on X.

From Kosovo, which has deep ties with the US since the 1998-99 war, President Vjosa Osmani also congratulated Trump on his White House comeback.

“The US remains Kosovo’s steadfast partner and indispensable ally. I look forward to working with the new administration to further deepen our unique bond and strategic alliance,” Osmani said on X.

A similar message came from Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. “Congratulations on a convincing victory and a second presidential term,” Plenkovic wrote on X. “I look forward to our cooperation and further progress in Croatian-American relations.”

Plenkovic’s domestic political rival, President Zoran Milanovic, hailed “the will of the majority of voters” in choosing Trump. He wrote on Facebook: “Since Croatian independence, the USA has been a partner and friend, I am convinced that this will remain the choice of the new president”.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama was also effusive in his congratulations: “I look forward to the great privilege of working with the 47th President to further enhance our partnership for peace, prosperity and further progress,” Rama wrote on X.

In Bulgaria, Boyko Borissov, leader of recent election-winners GERB and former prime minister, posted a photo of himself with Trump on social media, saying: “I’m ready for us to work together, again!”

Bulgarian President Rumen Radev also congratulated the Republican victor: “I am confident that our effective dialogue at the highest level will continue in the interest of the strategic partnership between Bulgaria and the USA,” Radev said.

Opposition party We Continue the Change’s Kiril Petkov described Trump’s comeback as US president as “a serious achievement”, while noting: “Of course, Bulgaria’s fate depends first and foremost on the will of the Bulgarians, but good cooperation with the US is crucial in the positioning of our country amid the changing geopolitical reality.”

In Greece, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis added his voice to the congratulatory messages from countries across the region. “Greece looks forward to further deepening the strategic partnership between our two countries and working together on important regional and global issues,” Mitsotakis wrote on X.

[unhetalia]

this is really weak of me but I really do have to headcanon the Nations as having nothing to do with their governments and at times actively working against them because otherwise the atrocities are Not Fictional...

and anyway these beings hundreds of years old absolutely know that governments do not always have the people's best interests in mind. Do not always take care of the land. Nations believe their role is to take care of their land and their people, and maybe the older Nations tried to work with those in power in the beginning, but quickly learn their lesson.

because of this headcanon, I imagine the Nations all have 'departments' they belong to that focus on a certain issue. It would be impossible to have one individual try to have intimate knowledge of every single issue a country faces, and I love the implications this has on how much the Nations rely on each other, and how much their relationships are not reflective of human politics, because their purpose is not to reflect their people but to protect them and the land they're on.

SO finally, to the point of this post.

Here's what I think certain Nations do:

England and Russia are in charge of information gathering AKA espionage, as both have infiltrated their own governments at a very high level. Arthur is in MI6, Ivan is in the KGB-turned-FSK-turned-FSB. They're valuable assets to the rest of the world because they tend to have information on what everyone's governments are doing. Some other Nations who work in this department are Hungary, Philippines (F), Canada, Cuba, Ukraine, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland.

A lot of Nations work on environmental issues - Sweden, Finland and Denmark focus on governance as a way to mitigate environmental issues, while Australia, New Zealand, South Africa are focused on conservation, Brazil, Colombia, Congo focus on deforestation and air pollution, the Pacific Islands on rising sea levels and ocean pollution.

China, France, Ireland and Turkey are focused on food security - each one focuses on a specific aspect of it. China on availability, Ireland on access, France on utilisation and Turkey on stability.

Social welfare is headed by Austria and Belgium, with Spain, the Italies, Greece and Portugal focused on it.

Internal security is handled by the Germany brothers and Switzerland - this is the protection of the Nations themselves. Arranging identities, extraction of Nations who land themselves in trouble, and also the keeper of their arsenal.

America heads the research and development department that connects everything together - they develop the gadgets used by Arthur and Ivan's team, help develop technologies and conduct research focused on the environment and food security, help trial new ideas on addressing poverty, hack databases in order to help create identities for Nations. This department includes Japan, South Korea, India (F), Taiwan, Tony (not a Nation but heavily involved), Liechtenstein, Hong Kong, Belarus, Netherlands, Estonia, Mexico (F).

EDIT: I have to re-think a lot of this because I keep thinking about how very little countries there are compared to shit happening in the world and it messes with this universe a little bit. SO. WILL BE RE-WORKED.

[mosabeldali]

The War on Gaza: 332 Days of Continuous Conflict ‼️

Since October 7, 2023, Gaza has been engulfed in a continuous state of war, with intense military operations now entering their 332nd day. This conflict, one of the longest and deadliest in the history of clashes between Israel and Palestinian factions, has brought immense human suffering and environmental and economic disasters, affecting all aspects of life in the besieged enclave.

Humanitarian Situation

As military operations persist, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has deteriorated sharply. The population of the enclave is living under a tight blockade, leading to severe shortages of food, medicine, and fuel. Health facilities are barely functioning amidst a rising number of injuries and casualties.

Children, women, and the elderly have been the most affected by this prolonged war, with poverty and unemployment rates reaching unprecedented levels. Additionally, the population suffers from acute shortages of clean drinking water and electricity, exacerbating their daily hardships.

International Stance

Despite widespread international condemnation and repeated offers of mediation to halt the fighting, diplomatic efforts have so far made no tangible progress. The parties continue to exchange accusations of thwarting peace efforts, while countries like Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey persist in attempts to broker a long-term ceasefire.

War’s Impact

Economically, Gaza is facing near-total collapse in its infrastructure. Thousands of homes and vital facilities, including schools and hospitals, have been destroyed, making reconstruction a massive challenge that requires extensive international efforts.

The environment in Gaza has not been spared from the war’s impact either, as agricultural lands have been polluted and destroyed, threatening the food security of the population.

Conclusion

After 332 days of relentless fighting, Gaza remains in a state of loss and uncertainty. The ongoing war casts a shadow over the entire region, foretelling long-term implications for peace and stability in the Middle East. What the Palestinian people urgently need now is an end to this war and the establishment of a lasting political solution that ends decades of conflict and suffering.

This article summarizes the current situation of the ongoing war in Gaza, highlighting the humanitarian, political, and economic aspects of this prolonged conflict.

[eretzyisrael]

by Robert Williams

To assess correctly the damage that Qatari influence in the US is causing, it is essential to understand what Qatar stands for and promotes. Qatar has for decades cultivated a close relationship with the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, whose motto is: “‘Allah is our objective; the Prophet is our leader; the Quran is our law; Jihad is our way; dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.” It aims to ensure that Islamic law, Sharia, governs all countries and all matters.

Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, has enjoyed Qatar as its main sponsor, to the tune of up to $360 million a year, and was until recently the home of Hamas’ leadership. In 2012, Ismail Haniyeh, head of the terrorist group’s political bureau, Mousa Abu Marzook, and Khaled Mashaal, among others, moved to Qatar for a life of luxury. This month, likely because of Israel’s announcement that it will hunt down and eliminate Hamas leaders in Qatar and Turkey, the Qatar-based Hamas officials reportedly fled to other countries.

Qatar was also home to Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, who was exiled from Egypt until his death in September 2022. According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center:

💬 “Qaradawi is mainly known as the key figure in shaping the concept of violent jihad and the one who allowed carrying out terror attacks, including suicide bombing attacks, against Israeli citizens, the US forces in Iraq, and some of the Arab regimes. Because of that, he was banned from entering Western countries and some Arab countries…. In 1999, he was banned from entering the USA. In 2009, he was banned from entering Britain…”

Qaradawi also founded many radical Islamist organizations which are funded by Qatar. These include the International Union of Muslim Scholars, which released a statement that called the October 7 massacre perpetrated by Hamas against communities in southern Israel an “effective” and “mandatory development of legitimate resistance” and said that Muslims have a religious duty to support their brothers and sisters “throughout all of Palestine, especially in Al-Aqsa, Jerusalem, and Gaza.”

Qatar is still home to the lavishly-funded television network Al Jazeera, founded in 1996 by Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Hamad ibn Khalifa Al Thani. Called the “mouthpiece of the Muslim Brotherhood,” Al Jazeera began the violent “Arab Spring,” which “brought the return of autocratic rulers.”

In 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt made 13 demands of Qatar: “to cut off relations with Iran, shutter Al Jazeera, and stop granting Qatari citizenship to other countries’ exiled oppositionists.” They subsequently cut ties with Qatar over its failure to agree to any of the demands, including ending its support for terrorism, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Al Jazeera.

The Saudi state-run news agency SPA said at the time:

💬 “[Qatar] embraces multiple terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at disturbing stability in the region, including the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS [Islamic State] and al-Qaeda, and promotes the message and schemes of these groups through their media constantly,”

US universities and colleges are happy to see this kind of influence on their campuses in exchange for billions of dollars in Qatari donations. According to ISGAP:

💬 “[F]oreign donations from Qatar, especially, have had a substantial impact on fomenting growing levels of antisemitic discourse and campus politics at US universities, as well as growing support for anti-democratic values within these institutions of higher education.”

[zogdon]

Non-binary choices: Why India won’t pick sides between Russia and the US

Non-binary choices: Why India won’t pick sides between Russia and the US https://www.rt.com/india/613790-india-us-russia-oil-trade/

India's independence came on the back of solid Soviet/Russian practical support, military, economical, and political.. especially at the UN Security Council.

The US took the side of British colonial regime in India.

We hope that India remembers this, next time when western Neocolonial regimes try to squeeze, exploit India again.

India's future is in the BRICs organisation. That's where India will be backed up by so many powerful member countries... when Washington starts to impose ever more sanctions on India. China is a great example of how to guard and protect a large economy from western regimes. India can learn a lot from the Chinese experience with the west.

But it's the Russian Federation, that is the best friend of the Indian people. And we hope that Indian politicians are listening, and not falling for the Turkish deception, on Russia.. playing both sides.. but in reality talking against Russia. Turkey's economy has nose dived since the turks aligned with the west against Russia... even if Ankara says that Russia is an important friend, and is building the turkish nuclear energy sector with the best technology in the world.. the Turks fool noone. Hopefully the Indian Politicians have noticed what happens, that even a large middle power, opposes Russia but tries to profit from Russia, at the same time.

So, India must not fall under western threats. They are just empty slogans anyway.

[beardedmrbean]

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed confidence that GERB leader Boyko Borissov would successfully form a government and bring stability to Bulgaria. During a visit to Sofia, Orban described Borissov as a good friend and commended the recent political developments in Bulgaria as promising. He emphasized the importance of Bulgaria having a stable government, not just for itself but also for Europe and Hungary.

Orban praised Borissov for his consistent support of Hungary, particularly in ensuring that gas transmission via the "Balkan Stream" pipeline remained uninterrupted despite external pressures. Highlighting the strategic role Bulgaria plays in Hungary’s energy security, Orban explained that Hungary relies heavily on natural gas supplies, with about 7 billion cubic meters of its total 9 billion annual consumption passing through Bulgaria. He also noted successful negotiations with the United States to delay sanctions on Gazprom’s bank, which further ensured Hungary’s energy security.

Borissov, in turn, expressed gratitude for Hungary's support in Bulgaria’s bid to join the Schengen Area. He reiterated the significance of the "Balkan Stream" pipeline, calling it a "pipe of friendship" that benefits not only Bulgaria but also neighboring countries such as Serbia, Hungary, North Macedonia, and Turkey. Borissov highlighted the substantial financial benefits Bulgaria derives from transit fees, emphasizing the strategic importance of the pipeline for regional cooperation and economic gains.

Earlier, Viktor Orban met with Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, who reaffirmed Bulgaria's role as a reliable energy partner for Hungary and the wider Central and Eastern European region. Radev praised Orban’s pragmatic approach to addressing geopolitical challenges and underscored the importance of peace in Ukraine through diplomatic efforts. Both leaders agreed on the necessity of prioritizing diplomacy in European discussions while enhancing the continent’s competitiveness.

Orban further acknowledged Bulgaria’s critical role in ensuring energy supplies amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has reshaped regional dynamics. He noted that Hungary imported 5.6 billion cubic meters of gas through Bulgaria last year, a figure that has increased to 9 billion this year. The substantial portion of Hungary’s gas supply passing through Bulgaria underscores its strategic importance in securing energy stability for Hungary.

[darkmaga-returns]

Winners and losers in Syria

by Melkulangara Bhadrakumar | Dec 9, 2024

Iran and Russia are the two big losers in the ouster of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday by the Sunni Islamist groups affiliated to al-Qaeda. Assad fled in the nick of time  after giving orders that there be a peaceful handover of power. The likelihood is that he is in Russia. At any rate, a rollback of the Islamist takeover in Syria is out of the question.

The Arab oligarchies of the Gulf region are full of trepidation over the surge of a variant of political Islam that may potentially pose an existential challenge. Unsurprisingly, they have gravitated toward Iran, whom they see as a factor of regional stability, reciprocating Tehran’s call on regional states to circle their wagons to ward off the challenge of “Takfiri” groups (codename for al-Qaeda and Islamic State in the Iranian narrative.)  

Israel and Turkey are the biggest winners, having established links with the al-Qaeda groups. Both are all well-set to project power into Syria and carve out their respective spheres of influence in Syrian territory. Turkey has demanded that Syria belongs to Syrian people alone — a thinly covered call for vacation of foreign military presence (Russian, American and Iranian.)

Equally, the Biden Administration can derive satisfaction that Russian military presence will not henceforth remain unchecked and an untenable situation of dramatic loss of influence surrounds Moscow’s military bases in the western Syrian province of Latakia. 

There is no question that the lame duck administration in Washington will draw vicarious pleasure that the incoming presidency of Donald Trump will have to grapple with prolonged instability and uncertainties in West Asia, an oil-rich region which generates petrodollar that is the underpinning of the western banking system — American dollar, in particular — that is crucial to the “America First”axis of the new administration’s foreign policies. 

[thousandflowerscampaign]

End of History ?

Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man (1992) argued that the end of the Cold War signaled the triumph of liberal democracy and free-market capitalism as the final form of human governance. He suggested that ideological evolution had reached its endpoint, with liberal democracy prevailing over alternatives like fascism and communism.

Relevance in Today’s World

1. Challenges to Liberal Democracy

- Rise of Authoritarianism: Countries like Russia, China, and Turkey have seen a resurgence of authoritarianism, challenging Fukuyama’s thesis.

- Democratic Backsliding: Even established democracies (e.g., Hungary, Poland, and concerns in the U.S.) show signs of erosion in rule of law, press freedom, and electoral integrity.

- Populism & Polarization: Movements rejecting liberal norms (e.g., Brexit, Trumpism, far-right parties in Europe) suggest dissatisfaction with the post-Cold War order.

2. Economic Discontent & Inequality

- Fukuyama assumed capitalism would distribute prosperity widely, but rising inequality (especially post-2008 financial crisis) fuels populism and anti-globalization movements.

- China’s state-capitalist model presents an alternative to Western liberal democracy, appealing to some developing nations.

3. Technological & Cultural Shifts

- Social media and AI have disrupted traditional democratic discourse, enabling misinformation and extremism.

- Identity politics and cultural fragmentation challenge the universalist assumptions of Fukuyama’s thesis.

4. Geopolitical Rivalries

- The U.S.-China rivalry represents a clash between democratic and authoritarian models, suggesting history has not "ended" but entered a new phase of competition.

- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reflects a rejection of the liberal international order.

Future Outlook

- Possible Scenarios:

- Continued Struggle: Liberal democracy may remain dominant but contested, with no clear superior alternative emerging.

- Authoritarian Resilience: If China maintains growth without democratizing, Fukuyama’s thesis weakens further.

- Post-Liberal Futures: New ideologies (e.g., eco-authoritarianism, digital authoritarianism, or technocracy) could arise.

- Fragmentation: The world may split into competing blocs (democratic vs. autocratic) rather than converging.

- Fukuyama’s Revised Views:

- He acknowledges that liberal democracy is not inevitable and requires active defense.

- His later work (Identity, 2018) focuses on the cultural struggles undermining democratic stability.

Conclusion

Fukuyama’s "end of history" remains influential but incomplete. Liberal democracy has not universally triumphed, and new challenges (authoritarianism, inequality, technology) suggest history is still unfolding. The future may see either a resurgence of democratic values or a prolonged era of ideological competition.

[cyberbenb]

Ukraine must look beyond the EU for its agricultural future

The end of the European Union’s tariff-free trade preferences for Ukrainian agricultural products is more than just a policy change, it’s a wake-up call.

For years, the EU has served as the largest and most reliable market for Ukraine’s agricultural exports. But as Brussels rolls back preferential quotas, Ukraine must rapidly diversify and open up new non-EU markets to safeguard its economy and cement its role in global food security.

Ukraine stands at a trading crossroads. It must now decide which path to go down as the European Union plans to apply much higher tariffs on agricultural and other exports as soon as next month.

The Breadbasket of Europe — and beyond

Ukraine has long been known as the breadbasket of Europe. Rich in black soil and abundant in agricultural know-how, the country is a global powerhouse in food production.  Even under the shadow of war, after Russia’s invasion, the sector remains a cornerstone of the national economy.

Despite missile strikes, minefields, and logistical nightmares, Ukrainian farmers have kept working. Agricultural products account for 60% of all exports, bringing in an estimated $25 billion in earnings over the past year. The world depends on Ukrainian grain, oilseeds, and foodstuffs. Ukraine is the largest global exporter of sunflower oil, one of the biggest corn exporters, and a major supplier of wheat and barley. That strength must now be redirected toward a broader set of trading partners.

Ukraine doesn’t just offer grain, it offers food security.

Relying too heavily on any one market, especially one where political and economic headwinds can shift quickly, is risky. The EU’s new limits underscore the vulnerability of Ukraine’s agri-export model. To stay competitive, Ukraine must engage more vigorously with other countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia, many of which face mounting food insecurity and would benefit greatly from stable Ukrainian supply lines.

A man spreads winter wheat in a truck during harvest season in the fields of the Dnipro Waves Agricultural Production Cooperative in the village of Dniprovi Khvyli, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine, on June 29, 2024. (Dmytro Smolienko / Ukrinform / Future Publishing via Getty Images)

Initiatives like the “Grain from Ukraine” program, providing for some of the poorest countries in Africa, have already shown the strategic value of Ukrainian agriculture. Citizens in Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya, and many other countries have benefited. But these efforts must now expand from humanitarian aid to long-term commercial partnerships.

What Ukraine has to offer

Ukraine doesn’t just offer grain, it offers food security. As climate change and conflict disrupt food systems across the globe, Ukraine’s agricultural output can serve as a stabilizing force. The country’s ability to deliver large volumes of high-quality produce, often at competitive prices, makes it a natural partner for countries with growing populations and food import needs.

In addition to bulk commodities, Ukraine is increasingly competitive in higher-value products. The country exports hundreds of millions of dollars of organic goods to dozens of countries, despite the war. With growing global demand for sustainable, ethically produced food, Ukrainian agribusinesses are well-positioned to enter niche and premium markets if they get the right support.

Bulk Carrier ASL TIA, which departed from a Ukrainian port, crosses the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey, on Nov. 2, 2022. (Cem Tekkesinoglu / dia images via Getty Images)

The investment gap

Here’s the catch: Seizing these opportunities requires capital. Much of Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure, storage facilities, railways, and processing plants need investment. Some have been damaged, degraded, or underdeveloped for decades. Logistics routes remain vulnerable. Certification standards and packaging often need to be upgraded to meet the demands of new markets.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is critical to bridging this gap. Investors in agribusiness, logistics, technology, and processing can find long-term value in Ukraine’s vast agricultural potential. In return, their capital and expertise can help modernize the sector, unlock exports, and create jobs across the country.

Venture capital in agri-tech and climate-resilient farming, for instance, could help Ukrainian producers boost yields and diversify crops. Partnerships with multinational food companies could pave the way for Ukraine to move up the value chain — producing not just raw grain but ready-to-eat foodstuffs, sauces, baby food, and premium packaged goods.

This isn’t just about economics. It’s a matter of national security and global stability. A thriving agricultural sector boosts Ukraine’s GDP, stabilizes rural communities, and reduces dependence on international aid. It also enhances Ukraine’s geopolitical relevance by helping feed an increasingly hungry world.

Ukraine’s farmers have proven their grit. Now they need new markets and the investment to reach them. From North Africa to Southeast Asia, the demand is there. The quality is in Ukraine. What’s needed is the bridge, built through trade policy, diplomacy, and serious foreign investment.

Ukraine must sow the seeds now for a diversified, resilient, and prosperous agricultural future. And the world should be eager to help it grow.

Backroom diplomacy and battlefield reality: Ukraine at the IMF Spring Meetings

Visiting Washington during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings this April felt surreal. The weather was nice, but the air was heavy with the uncertainty of the tariff war, President Donald Trump’s administration’s criticisms of international institutions, and the far more immediate tension of geopolitics between

The Kyiv IndependentMaria Repko

[mariacallous]

On Feb. 27, Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), called on the group and its armed affiliates to lay down their weapons and disband. The PKK responded positively, declaring a unilateral cease-fire in its conflict with Ankara and requesting security assurances from the Turkish government to facilitate the group’s dissolution.

Ocalan did not specify whether his call applied to the PKK’s ideological offspring in Syria, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF controls much of northern and northeastern Syria east of the Euphrates River and has been a key player in the fight against the Islamic State.

But just days later, on March 10, the SDF’s leader, Mazloum Abdi, signed an agreement with Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa. The sides agreed on eight principles, laying the groundwork to secure Syrian Kurds’ constitutional rights and integrate the SDF into the new Syrian state by year’s end.

These twin developments have profound implications for geopolitics in the Middle East. Ocalan’s call and subsequent events in Syria signal a potential turning point for Kurdish political and military strategy. As the PKK considers disbanding and the SDF pursues political integration, how the Kurdish question is answered in one country will shape how it is answered elsewhere.

The Kurds make up approximately 15 percent to 20 percent of Turkey’s population, numbering around 15 million to 20 million people. They have faced cultural and political repression since Turkey’s founding in 1923 and continue to struggle for equal citizenship. Kurdish issues are a core driver of political tensions in Turkey.

The conflict between the PKK and Turkey has spanned over four decades, claiming more than 40,000 lives and displacing millions of people. Throughout this period, Turkey has criminalized many Kurdish political and cultural rights, frequently equating them with PKK membership or terrorism. Pro-Kurdish political parties separate from the PKK, such as the Peoples’ Democratic Party, have faced repression from Turkish authorities, too.

Now, what appears to be the start of a transition to a nonviolent, democratic process of reconciliation could create some stability in the region. The PKK is a designated terrorist organization in the European Union, United Kingdom, and United States, as well as other nations. Its dissolution could render that classification obsolete.

Yet the specifics of Ocalan’s status and the PKK’s disarmament road map remain unclear. Ocalan’s announcement is allegedly the product of prolonged negotiations with Turkish authorities that span over a year. According to the spokesperson of Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party—a key party in the process—Ocalan and PKK and SDF leadership exchanged private letters prior to his call for the PKK’s disbandment. This indicates that Turkey may have made certain guarantees to the groups’ leaders.

Unlike prior peace efforts that emphasized legal reforms as the first step, the current process demands immediate disarmament with no clear path to peace and reconciliation—or third-party oversight. The 2013 to 2015 Turkey-PKK peace process included a committee composed mainly of civil society leaders and artists. Similarly, during 2008-2010 negotiations, Norway mediated by hosting talks.

The Kurdish public is wary of engaging in talks with Turkey due to the failure of past negotiations. Yet they also see Ocalan’s call as a potential path toward long-awaited peace. The very pro-Kurdish parties Turkey has long repressed may now have an opportunity to play a key role in talks. One possible outcome could be broad amnesty for thousands of Kurdish political prisoners, including Selahattin Demirtas, the former leader of the Peoples’ Democratic Party who has been imprisoned since November 2016.

However, following the recent arrest of opposition leader and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, mass protests have disrupted negotiations between the PKK and Ankara—and shifted national attention away from the Kurdish issue. The Turkish government’s next steps are unclear. They may be linked to what happens in neighboring Syria.

​​Turkey has played a significant role in the Syrian civil war since its outbreak in 2011, hosting millions of Syrian refugees and supporting various armed factions in the conflict. Ankara’s primary motive for getting involved has been its desire to eliminate threats posed by Kurdish groups allied with the PKK, such as the SDF. At different points, Turkey has backed several Islamist groups that fought against Kurds, the most influential being Sharaa’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, a conglomerate of armed factions.

After Sharaa’s forces ousted Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad last December, Turkey swiftly reengaged with Syria. Turkey sent its intelligence chief and foreign minister to Damascus, offering diplomatic and logistical support to the new state. Some observers, including U.S. President Donald Trump, have suggested that Turkey was behind Assad’s fall. On April 8, Trump said that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had “taken over Syria … through surrogates.” Erdogan has welcomed the deal between the SDF and Sharaa, endorsing the militant group’s integration into the new Syrian state.

The agreement marks a major step toward political dialogue and potential power-sharing. If successful, the monthslong peace process could transform Kurds from peripheral actors into foundational partners in post-conflict Syria, similar to after Saddam Hussein’s fall in Iraq.

However, Syrian Kurds remain cautious. Implementing and safeguarding their hard-earned autonomy may prove difficult. In recent weeks, Syria has experienced an uptick in violence against ethnic and religious minorities.

Forces loyal to Sharaa’s government in mid-March massacred over 1,000 people in the erstwhile Assad stronghold of Latakia. An interim Syrian constitution that Sharaa signed on March 13 also lacks adequate protections for minorities. It has been rejected by Alawite, Kurdish, and Druze communities. Until a credible, enforceable legal framework protects Kurds and other minorities, the SDF will likely remain armed.

The trauma of the Islamic State’s rise also continues to haunt many Syrian Kurds. The group is estimated to have massacred thousands of Kurds in the country’s northeast between 2013 and 2017.

Abdi and Sharaa have jointly declared their commitment to continuing the fight against the Islamic State. However, a major unresolved issue is the fate of the over 40,000 Islamic State detainees and their families currently held in SDF-run camps and prisons. This has been a particular concern for the United States and European countries, as there are significant numbers of foreign fighters among the detainees.

Sharaa has expressed a willingness to assume responsibility for these facilities, but his controversial past as a jihadist militant raises serious security concerns. Some analysts say that putting Damascus in charge could compromise the global coalition’s efforts against the Islamic State.

When it comes to Syria, the United States—the key actor in the coalition—may be pulled in a few different directions. Syria has become a battleground for power and influence between Turkey and Israel. Israel currently occupies southern Syria and periodically targets Syrian defense installations with airstrikes. Reuters reported that Israel has lobbied Washington to keep Syria weak and decentralized—likely in part by supporting Kurdish and Druze groups as part of a broader containment strategy. That’s despite the fact that Sharaa has repeatedly declared that he does not want conflict with Israel.

Turkey, for its part, continues to push for full disarmament and integration of the SDF into the Syrian state. Trump, who has strong ties to both Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has said he could mediate between the two leaders.

What’s clear is the Kurdish question in Syria cannot be addressed through the same lens as Turkey’s conflict with the PKK. While Turkey significantly reduced the PKK’s operational capacity within its borders, the SDF is Syria’s most formidable armed group—making it an unavoidable actor in any future political or security discussions in the country.

The SDF’s participation in Syrian state-building could accelerate democratic improvements for Kurds in Turkey. That’s because, by its very nature, the SDF’s integration into Syrian institutions necessitates state recognition of Kurdish identity—something Turkey has long been reluctant to do.

The confluence of the recent PKK and SDF announcements means Kurds are no longer an isolated geopolitical force. Over the past two decades, they have forged strategic alliances across borders, expanding their political influence and strengthening military capabilities.

While they remain vulnerable to shifting regional power plays, Kurdish groups have leverage that did not exist in previous eras. Ocalan’s call has set in motion a profound geopolitical recalibration—one whose ultimate impact will depend on how skillfully all actors, including Kurds, navigate the unfolding landscape.

[world-maps]

Byzantine and Sasanian Empires in 600 CE

Eurasian Bookshelf April 17 at 3:42 AM  · 

Byzantine and Sasanian Empires in 600 CE

In the year 600 CE, the Byzantine (Eastern Roman) and Sasanian (Neo-Persian) empires stood as the dominant powers of the Mediterranean and Western Asia. Long-standing rivals, their centuries-old conflict shaped the political, military, and cultural landscape of the late ancient world.

Byzantine Empire

• Ruled by Emperor Maurice (r. 582–602), the empire’s core was centered in Anatolia, the Balkans, and the Eastern Mediterranean.

• The Byzantines controlled:

o Greece, Thrace, and the Balkans

o Asia Minor (modern Turkey)

o The Levant, Egypt, and parts of North Africa

o Southern Italy and some outposts in Spain

• The empire was Christian, Greek-speaking, and increasingly urbanized, with Constantinople as its powerful capital.

• Maurice had helped Khosrow II regain the Sasanian throne, briefly stabilizing Byzantine–Sasanian relations.

Sasanian Empire

• Under Khosrow II, the Sasanians controlled a vast territory extending from:

o Mesopotamia and the Iranian Plateau

o The Caucasus (including Armenia and Iberia)

o Parts of Central Asia and eastern Arabia

• The empire was Zoroastrian, with strong aristocratic and military traditions, especially the elite Savaran cavalry.

• Despite internal dynastic struggles in the late 6th century, the empire was unified and poised for expansion.

The Balance of Power in 600

• While the Byzantines had a broader territorial reach and a strong administrative system, they faced constant threats on multiple fronts: Slavs and Avars in the Balkans, and Persians in the East.

• The Sasanians were more centralized militarily and had recently regained political cohesion.

• This fragile balance would soon erupt into the devastating Roman–Persian War (602–628), exhausting both empires and opening the door for the Arab-Islamic conquests.

#ByzantineEmpire#SasanianEmpire#LateAntiquity#RomanPersianWars#600CE#Maurice#KhosrowII

[the-hem]

Middle East Unity and Integration Framework (MEUIF)

A Peace-Centered Path to Stability and Prosperity

I. Vision Statement

A unified and inclusive Middle East built on mutual respect, economic cooperation, and regional independence—with Israel recognized as a single, sovereign state that guarantees full civil and political rights to all its citizens, including Arabs and Palestinians.

II. Guiding Principles

Sovereignty and Inclusivity

Israel exists as one unified state from the river to the sea, with equal legal and civil rights for Jews, Muslims, Christians, Druze, and secular populations.

No separate state for Palestinians—rather, full citizenship, representation, and integration within Israel’s constitutional framework.

Human Rights and Democratic Structure

Israel will enshrine protections for all ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups under a renewed constitutional charter guaranteeing equality before the law.

Autonomous cultural and municipal councils allow communities to preserve traditions while participating in a national democratic system.

Regional Stability Through Integration

The broader Middle East will be encouraged to form cooperative regional institutions around Israel’s stability as a model.

Legacy grievances will be addressed through reconciliation forums, reparative economic programs, and transitional justice initiatives.

Regional Independence from Foreign Influence

The Middle East must be governed by its people—not by distant powers. The gradual removal of the U.S. as a political enforcer opens space for sovereign diplomacy and genuine reconciliation.

III. Political and Legal Foundations

Unified Israeli State Structure

Parliament includes proportional representation for all ethnicities and faiths.

Shared police forces, integrated education systems, and equal access to national healthcare, infrastructure, and defense.

Permanent End to Statelessness

All residents, including Arabs currently identified as Palestinians, will receive full Israeli citizenship, voting rights, and national protections.

International refugee status phased out through integration, housing initiatives, and employment programs.

Middle East Council for Cooperation (MECC)

A regional diplomatic body where Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Turkey, UAE, and Iraq collaborate on security, trade, and climate.

Encourages regional defense pacts and shared development ventures.

IV. Economic Integration and Prosperity

Levant-Gulf Economic Corridor

Connect Israel’s high-tech economy to Arab oil wealth and industrial capacity via integrated energy, logistics, and research zones.

Middle East Infrastructure Fund

Joint investment in renewable energy, green cities, desalinization, digital economies, and AI innovation hubs.

Workforce and Education Exchange

Cross-border university accreditation.

Interlinked job markets and training pipelines with labor mobility agreements.

V. Cultural Integration and Reconciliation

Truth and Reconciliation Process

Independent commission to review historical injustices, issue findings, and recommend symbolic and material reparations.

Memorials, national holidays, and education reforms that reflect a multi-narrative understanding of regional history.

Shared Heritage Programs

Preservation and access to sacred sites for all faiths, overseen by an interreligious council.

Pilgrimage zones with free movement and shared cultural festivals.

VI. Transitioning Beyond U.S. Oversight

Five-Year Strategic Drawdown

U.S. military influence ends in phased steps. Local peacekeeping responsibilities shift to a new neutral bloc led by regional powers.

American diplomacy replaced by Middle Eastern capital-based leadership (Riyadh, Jerusalem, Cairo, Tehran).

Post-American Policy Sovereignty

Regional affairs are determined by Middle Eastern governments through consensus—not Western mandates.

Conclusion

A peaceful, sovereign, and inclusive Israeli state can serve as the anchor for a new Middle East—unified not by fear or borders, but by opportunity, cooperation, and mutual prosperity. The path forward requires courage, but history proves that unity built on justice is not only possible—it’s inevitable.

[jordanianroyals]

25 February 2025: Crown Prince Hussein met with Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara.

The Crown Prince expressed Jordan’s keenness on strengthening Jordan’s deep-rooted ties with Turkey and its people.

The meeting covered ways to expand economic cooperation, as well as in the fields of education, tourism, vocational and technical training, military coordination, and countering terrorism in the region, the statement said. 

The two sides stressed the importance of maintaining coordination between Jordan and Turkey on a number of regional issues, in service of mutual interests and stability in the region.

The meeting also covered regional developments, with His Royal Highness and President Erdogan reiterating the shared position of the two countries in relation to the Palestinian cause and the importance of rebuilding Gaza without displacing Palestinians from their land.

Discussions addressed the dangerous escalations in the West Bank and frequent violations of Muslim and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem, the statement said. 

The two sides called for stepping up efforts to create a political horizon to achieve just and comprehensive peace on the basis of the two-state solution, while maintaining close coordination through the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and Arab League Contact Group on Gaza.

His Royal Highness praised Turkey's provision of humanitarian aid to Gaza as well as its support of UNRWA, reaffirming that Jordan will continue to facilitate the delivery of aid from Turkey to the Strip.

Turning to Syria, the Crown Prince and President Erdogan reiterated their support for Syria’s security, stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, as well as for the new Syrian administration’s efforts to rebuild the country, according to the statement.